10 Secrets to Winning the AFL Dream Team
Updated in 2008: This post was written in 2007, I’ve noticed quite a few visitors coming here in 2008, and while a lot of this information is still relevant, the 2008 Dream Team Survival Guide is much more relevant.
It’s nearly time for the AFL Dream Team to start again, and I’m sure we’d all love to beat our friends, family, co-workers and other Dream Teamers so we can have bragging rights all the way through ’til the next season. Plus the chance of winning $50,000 cash for first prize isn’t too shabby either. Here are some tips I used to win the grand final in my league last year.
Secret #1. Don’t waste your trades early.
This may sound like a no brainer, but this is one of the most important rules for maintaining your ability to be competitive at the latter end of the season. Going into the finals, a player in first position with no trades left is likely going to be much worse off than the bloke in 6th position with 4 trades left. While you do need to use some trades early on to pick up the guns and cash cows, make sure you don’t trade unnecessarily or it could hurt you at the end of the season.
Secret #2. Find the rookies that are likely to play.
There’s nothing better than buying a rookie for $66,500 and selling him for $200,000+, or keeping him on your team watching him get scores of 90+ each week, more than many of your $200-$300k players. Keep an eye on the draft, the first 4 picks usually get good game time (I would steer clear of Leuenberger this year though). Make sure you watch the news and listen to what the coaches are saying. You might be able to pick up an unknown rookie that will be getting game time in round 1 if you keep your ears open. Also keep in mind that rookies from teams such as West Coast or Sydney are unlikely to be given too many games in their first year. Younger, rebuilding teams like Essendon, Carlton and Brisbane will most likely give their first year players much more game time than the established teams.
Secret #3. The 3-game price fluctuation rule.
After three games, a players price will fluctuate based on performance. If you see a cheap player (ie. first or second year player) who’s played 2 games and has had reasonable scores, you can expect his price to go up anywhere from $10,000 to $100,000 the following week. Making wise money decisions early on will greatly increase your ability to get trade up to the more expensive players later on. If you’ve got enough trades, trade one of your average players or reserves for these guys after their second game and watch the value of your team get a quick boost.
Secret #4. Don’t pick your hero.
Just because you’re a fan of (insert your favourite player here) it doesn’t mean that you need to have him on your team. Even if he occasionally kicks 10 goals in a game, or has the capacity to take 20 marks in a quarter, those rare occurrences will be few and far between. Don’t get sucked in by spending all your dough on your favourite player just because you know he’ll have a few terrific games. There will most likely be more consistent players within the same price range which will be much better value for money.
Secret #5. Target key players.
I don’t think there was a single dream team without Collingwood’s primary ruckman Josh Fraser last year, and he was an absolute steal at $177,000. He averaged 95.23 points per game and his value went up by $146,400. Brendon Lade, another primary ruck averaged 98.68 points per game, and while not as much of a bargain as Fraser, his value did go up $62,100. There are other players that are crucial to the structure of a side and will score consistently throughout the entire season. Get them.
Secret #6. Buy intelligently.
This also bears some risk, but it is a great way to pick up those talented players for much less than they are really worth. If you notice a considerably good player coming back from an injury (ie. Nathan G Brown and Justin Koschitzke), or dropping sharply in price after a few bad games, it might be a good time to swap one of your lesser performing players for him in the hopes his form will improve over the course of the season. Especially look for players who have played their last few matches against hard teams, therefore not being able to play at their best.
Secret #7. Choose the right captain.
One of the best and worst things about the Dream Team is the captain of your side who scores double points each game. Choose your most consistent player as your captain. There are a few exceptions, for instance if you know he will be sidelined to prevent a minor injury turning into a major one, or you think he will be rested if the game is almost won in preparation for the finals, then choose your next consistent player. Don’t change your captain every week to the previous week’s highest scoring player. Often players will have a great week, then turn around next week and have a very poor one.
Secret #8. Study your opposition.
At the beginning of the season, this is important to note as there would be no point using a trade on an injured player if you are likely to win the game by a large margin anyway. However, studying your opponents team is most important in the finals as you are likely to have quite a few of the same players. This is fine, as it means their scores will cancel each others out. Note that you do want to have one or two good players in your line up that your opponent doesn’t have to increase your chances of winning.
Secret #9. Always have reserves.
Rookies are great for this, as they are cheap and they will usually increase in value, but you can also find players in the median price range that will play 16 - 22 games per season which are good to have on your bench. These are invaluable when one of your star players suffers a minor injury or a suspension and is out for a week or two. You don’t want to waste 2 trades by selling him, then buying him back later on just to have a full team. Promote your reserve for the short duration he is out and live with a mild cut in your score.
Secret #10. It’s a team sport.
One of the most important things to remember about the Dream Team is the fact that it is a team sport. Most of the time it’s far better to have a full starting line-up of players in favour of one star player in the place of two or three average players.
Here’s a few players that I think are great value for money this year:
- Back: Jed Adcock
- Centre: Ryan Griffen
- Ruck: Aaron Sandilands
- Forward: Lance Franklin
Good luck in the 2007 Dream Team comp, here are some links that might help you further:
- FanFooty’s AFL Dream Team Price Prediction Tool
- Footy Wire: Australian Rules Football League Stats
- BigFooty.com’s Dream Team / Super Coach / Footy Challenge Forum
- AFL Injury Update. The latest news on injured and suspended players
February 6th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
G’day, just wanted to see if you still have an interest in writing AFL Dream Team articles. This was a great one! We have a site Dream Team Hero and are currently seeking out more writers.
Look forward to your response.
PAUL
paul@dreamteamhero.com.au